The project aims to enhance the lead time for flood early warning and preparedness in Bangladesh by expanding the generation and application of long-lead probabilistic flood forecast warning information to larger areas in Bangladesh, operationalizing 20-25 days and seasonal forecasts in pilot areas, piloting the flash flood early warning system, and complementing CARE Bangladesh work in cyclone-prone areas.

Objectives:

1. Expanding the 1-10 days flood forecasting to larger pilot areas (under CARE SHOUHARDO II program areas)
2. Operationalizing monthly and seasonal forecasts
3. Piloting flash flood early warning system at Sunamgang and Cox'Bazaar area
4. Complementing existing cyclone prediction program of Bangladesh Meteorological Department

Key Activities:

1. Expand 1-10 day flood forecasts
2. Pilot flash flood forecasting and application
3. Operationalize 20-25 day and seasonal forecast

Expected Outcomes and Performance Measures

1. Technology development:

• Operational medium range (1-10 days) flood forecasting at three major rivers (Brahmaputra, Ganges and Megna) basin with 38 water level stations
• Operational long range (20-25 days) flood outlook
• Operational flash flood forecast
• Development of web based DSS for flood risk management for FFWC

2. Demonstration of technology application is indicated by the number of:

• FFWC staff trained on newly evolved forecasts system
• Communities to receive warning, interpret and response on medium range forecasts, long range (20-25 days) range forecasts and flash flood forecast

3. Technology transfer and capacity building:

• Transfer of models to FFWC
• Number of FFWC staff trained on the use of models developed under the project
• Number of national and local level institutions, including DMB, DAE, CARE Bangladesh and local NGOs trained to translate forecast information into impact outlooks and selection of response options
• Number of BWDB staff and partner NGO, farmers, and Upazila Disaster Management Committee members trained on probabilistic flood forecast, DSS tool, and their application in planning and decision-making, including data archiving and GIS-based risk mapping.
• Enhancement of observation system to increase data availability for forecasting and warning

In light of the SHOUHARDO Program Phase I, the SHOUHARDO Phase II  expanded on the long lead probabilistic flood forecasts warning information to larger areas, with the support of USAID, the Government of Bangladesh and CARE Bangladesh.

RIMES implemented this project supporting the Flood Forecasting and Warning Centre (FFWC) to carry out the long lead flood forecast activities once the project is finalized, promoting its sustainability.

Project Partners/Beneficiaries:

• Flood Forecasting and Warning Center (FFWC)
• Bangladesh Water Development Board
• Disaster Management Bureau
• Department of Agricultural Extension
• Upazila Disaster Management Committee
• CARE and local NGOs
• Farmers