The Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) completed the fourth Climate Applications Forum (CAF) on 5 December 2024, in Islamabad, under the CARE for South Asia project. The fourth CAF convened 93 participants from diverse stakeholder institutions in Pakistan. The CAF, held in collaboration with RIMES and funded by the World Bank, highlighted the importance of utilizing PMD's climate information of different timescales in sectoral planning and decision-making. The CAF further provides emphasis on PD being the primary and most reliable source of climate information of weather/climate information in Pakistan.
The fourth CAF reviewed the 2023-2024 winter and 2024 monsoon seasons, from which key observations included a) significant rainfall variations in, and shifts in the tract of, the monsoon; and b) July 2024 experienced below-average rainfall coupled with exceptionally high temperatures, while August 2024 saw 50% above average rainfall, particularly in Balochistan and Sindh, marking it as the second wettest August in the last 64 years; and c) Balochistan and Sindh received much higher rainfall than the rest of the country, while Kashmir experienced less than normal rainfall, during the 2024 monsoon season.
Meanwhile, the seasonal outlook for the 2024-2025 winter season in Pakistan suggests below-normal rainfall in northern Pakistan (Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, northern Balochistan, and upper Punjab); near-normal rainfall in southern Punjab and Sindh, and above-normal temperatures nationwide, especially in upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa and Gilgit-Baltistan. These conditions could impact, among others: a) agriculture by reducing soil moisture and stressing crops; b) health through the increase of seasonal illnesses and respiratory issues; and c) water resources and hydropower generation in areas where significantly below normal rainfall is expected. Of particular concern is the elevated drought risk in northern regions. Prolonged dry conditions could lead to short-term droughts, affecting agriculture and water supply. Authorities are advised to monitor conditions closely and prepare contingency plans to mitigate the potential impacts. Proactive measures and efficient water usage are recommended to address these challenges.
The CAF also highlighted challenges related to data sharing and integration among government departments, emphasizing the need for a centralized databank and data-sharing policy. Technological advancements, including AI-based solutions, were discussed to enhance climate resilience and disaster risk reduction.
Two key initiatives under CARE Component 1, the Climate-Informed Planning and Development (CLIM-PLANNED) and Agro-Advisory System (ADVISE) DSSs were elaborated during the CAF. CLIM-PLANNED focuses on integrating climate information into planning and decision-making processes, ensuring that development projects/interventions are climate-resilient. ADVISE DSS, on the other hand, is designed to provide actionable climate information to agriculture stakeholders, by offering timely forecast-based potential impacts outlook and response options, aiding better planning and decision-making for resources and risk management.
The CAF stressed the importance of continued collaboration, regular updates, and capacity-building efforts in climate-informing plans and decisions in different sectors. The CAF also acknowledged the invaluable support provided by the World Bank and RIMES and articulated replication of the CAF to the provinces; expansion of the DSS to all provinces/relevant areas; and initiation of Climate-Smart Advisory (CSA) under the PMD’s Hydromet Project to ensure data-driven decisions for climate resilience and disaster risk reduction in Pakistan.